After winning the South Dakota and Montana primaries, Barack Obama secured the requisite number of delegates to become the Democratic nominee for the presidntial election. notwithstanding that Hillary Clinton has yet to concede defeat. Unlike Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, Obama broke through the primary season as the party choice, and, thus, he has a fair shot of winning the top political post in America. As a candidate, he is a charismatic orator. As political operations go, his campaign has raised millions through internet contribution whereas Hillary Clinton ran up huge debts. Such credentials and popularity through triumph will make the presidential race far more interesting than the last contest despite its closeness.
Obama versus McCain is a duel of many obvious contrasts: young against old, innocence versus experience, fire versus ice. In the forthcoming presidential debates, the electorate will see how Obama's passion and flair hold up against the patient voice of reason of the McCain brand. But what does the Obama candidacy mean?
The junior senator from Illinois dubs himself as an agent of change. He holds the moral high ground over the Iraq War, for he voted against the invasion in 2003. In last night's victory speech, he appeared polished and passionate. No recent Democratic cnadidate has displayed both characterisitcs authentically let alone simultaneously. With his wife, adorned in a Chanel dress and pearl necklace, beside him, he cuts a figure of the new JFK.
Yet, while stoking the fervor and hopes of Democratic partisans, who compare his febrile ascendance and its concomitant excitement to the ill-fated RFK, Obama realistically seems more likely to be Alfred Smith rather than JFK. Kennedy may have been the first and only Roman Catholic to hold the presidency, but Smith was the first Catholic candidate from a major party for the office. Smith lost to Hoover in 1928.
'Firsts' are a good thing for all aspects of society, for they reflect attitudes of tolerance, pluralism, and meritocratic mobility. However, it is difficult for a 'first' to be elected, and appointment has been the route typically for ethnic minorities and women from Brandeis to O'Connor to Scalia to Gonzalez. This election will be a good measure of how tolerant and plural American democracy really is, and Obama faces demographic obstacles in key swing states such as Ohio, Michigan, and Pennsylvania which he failed to carry in the primaries.
More interesting will be how former Confederate states vote. No Southern state has ever elected a black man to the US Senate. The only black man to have been elected governor of a Southern state was Doug Wilder of Virginia. Though racial sentiment may be associated with Dixie, in alll cynical likelihood, whites all over America may vote McCain simply because of an atavistic opposition to a black man becoming president.
However flimsy the pretexts may be for keeping Obama out of office, one thing is certain: the amount of buzz he has created will mobilize the electorate to go and vote. Young voters, who see him as an agent of change and promise, as someone who has cast off their disaffection with politics, will get over their apathy and themselves and pull the lever on his behalf. Racists will turn out in droves and be the barrier. The DNC and Obama campaign will take great legal and practical measures to make sure that the black community - itself split over whether Obama is good for his own people - does not suffer the shameful chicanery of 21st century disenfranchisement which dotted the last two contests.
Voter turnout ought to be high this November. Even if Obama goes the way of Smith rather than Kennedy, the consolidation of American democracy and popular interest in politics will benefit everyone.
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