Though the Masters is still a month a way, few can dispute that the Ryder Cup will be the biggest event this year for competitive golf. Given the recent dominance by the European side, some have lamented that American golf is doomed. Not only does European supremacy indicate a nadir in American golf, but that only 21 of 64 contestants in the recent Match Play signify a dearth of elite American talent. Furthermore, according to the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR), Europe claims ten of the top thirty worldwide to America's eight. Only 33 of the top 100 in the OWGR are American born. Examining other metrics, one can see the Cassandras have overblown the demise of the game in America.
32 different American born players won 36 of 47 titles on the PGA Tour last year; 9 foreigners claimed the other eleven. Of the 125 players who finished 2007 fully exempt for 2008, 45 represent international flags. American winning percentage - 40%, foreigners - 20%. Pretty convincing metric. The US side dominated the President's Cup against an international team that had a pair of repeat winners on the 2007 PGA Tour (Vijay Singh, KJ Choi), Tiger beater Nick O'Hern, Aussie standouts Scott, Appleby, and Ogilvy as well as the South African quartet of Immelman, Sabbatini, Goosen and Els. Include Weir and Cabrera, and the resumes on this roster will pale the 2006 European Ryder Cup team members. The major tote board between those two sides favors the internationals 10 to a then 1; Padraig Harrington's Open victory at Carnoustie raised the Euro total to 2. Why, although its players win with greater efficiency and succeed in President's Cup matches, then, does the US have its back waxed both on home soil and abroad? A plausible answer is format.
The President's Cup has a four day format where players will play only one match three of four days. Also, playing once everyday allows a golfer to maintain the routine one is accustomed to playing full field events. Also, the first two team match days require all to play; only on the third day with morning and afternoon team matches, five in each session, will players sit out. Ryder Cup play is crammed into three days where two a days for the first two days of competition are de rigeur for the best players. With only four matches in morning and afternoon sessions, captains must choose the players wisely. Putting the best pairings together is one of the most scrutinized combinatorics problems. Though European Captain Mark James has been villified for front loading the 1999 Matches with his best players, trying to build an insurmountable lead prior to the singles match day makes a lot of sense. Fatigue did set in eventually, even with young and fit stars like Sergio Garcia and Jesper Parnevik. However, the world's best are elite athletes that ought to suck it up and deal for the pride and honor of representing their homelands. So what other explanation is there for poor results? What might Captain Azinger do differently, especially against a thinker and manager like counterpart Nick Faldo? Math and chemistry.
American captains have not distinguished themselves in optimizing the talent on American teams. Amendments to the selection process ought to help. Cuts made and money earned are the mitigating criteria now. Top ten finishes mean less when the money has become so good that players cherry pick their venues. Playing where one has had past success helps keep up confidence, and that is the key to putting together a streak of high earnings weeks. Making the Ryder Cup team is indeed an honor to all PGA Tour players, and those who can poise themselves to do so will play a schedule to maximize the chance of earning a spot. Also, four captain's selections make playing one's way onto the team more of a meritocracy. Moreover, it allows the captain to pick either players whose games suit the venue or those who would complement one of the eight in the team format matches if no suitable partner exists within the ranks of those eight players. Many other factors determine whom Captain Azinger will eventually select, and the process is not so formulaic. Few things merit consideration. First, the long layout suits bombers. In 2000, the year Titleist introduced the seamed Pro-V1, and manufacturers built thin faced titanium drivers, three of the four longest on tour that year tore up Valhalla. Though short knockers like Bob May and Scott Dunlap had good tournaments there, they were not so short statistically speaking. Both ranked within the top half of driving distance. Both finished with average distances higher than the mean for all players ranked in that category. Second, Tiger Woods will play at a venue where he has won before. Hence it is less urgent to find a suitable partner for the better ball sessions. His score alone ought to be good enough to compete against whomever Europe has pitted against him. However, finding the right complement to play alongside Woods in foursomes remains somewhat vexing. He has won with Furyk, Love and O'Meara. The three share the common denominator of driving accuracy. Allowing Woods' fine iron play to take over is essential in the alternate shot format. Next, choosing the ironmen, those playing in all five match sessions, is critical. In 2006, Cink, Mickelson, Woods, and Furyk all played five matches and earned eight of 20 possible points. Having the four best players play the most makes sense on the surface, but the golf course may not favor them necessarily. Moreover, no matter what the stakes, playing the same course five times in three days might become boring. The captain should have the final decision over who plays, but having some feedback from the squad may be no bad thing. Finding out who likes the golf course ought to help determine the roster for each session. Given Phil Mickelson's parlous performance in foursomes, maybe he ought to sit out those frames. Also, finding compatible games rather than compatible players is the basis for chemistry rather than the popular perception of camaraderie. To reiterate, other competitive factors such as likely opposition, course conditions, and whose game is sharpest hold greater weight come matchtime, but sorting who will play with whom in advance, much like putting together penalty killing, scoring, or checking lines together in hockey, lessens the effect of externalities on the margin.
To conclude, though the points race will evolve over the course of the year, here is a list, in no particular order, of some young players (all are within the top 50 of the 3/10/08 points standings) who, if they do not make the squad by dint of performance, certainly merit consideration as one of the four captain's picks:
- Hunter Mahan
- Jeff Quinney
- Brandt Snedeker
- Troy Matteson
- John Mallinger
- D.J. Trahan
- Bubba Watson
- Steve Marino
- Dustin Johnson
- Anthony Kim
- Lucas Glover
- Sean O'Hair
- Nick Watney
By the look of it, that roster (whom to omit will make a good barroom debate) may have enough firepower to take down Europe. So much for the decline of American golf.
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